Gold and Silver Prices Stay Firm Above Key Levels; Optimism Builds Ahead of 2026

Gold and silver prices continued to display strength this week, holding firmly above major psychological levels despite intermittent profit booking. Gold opened above ₹1.28 lakh per 10 grams on November 28, while silver prices advanced 1% to ₹1.85 lakh per kg by November 30, signalling persistent bullish sentiment among  forex traders and investors.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures traded at ₹1,29,599, up 1.5% for the week, while silver futures were seen at ₹1,75,340, extending their strong monthly performance. Silver’s rally has been especially notable, recording an impressive 21.71% gain in November, marking one of its strongest monthly jumps in recent years.

Demand indicators from major cities also highlight robust physical buying. In Delhi, 24-carat gold traded near ₹1,28,460 per 10 grams, while silver was quoted around ₹1,92,000 per kg, with rates varying slightly based on jeweller premiums and local taxes.

Global and Domestic Price Drivers

Commodity analysts attribute the current uptrend to a combination of global monetary expectations, currency movements, and domestic demand.

1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

Market expectations of multiple rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have widened the appeal of bullion. Lower US interest rates typically weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

With traders pricing in the Fed’s easing cycle for 2026, speculative and long-term demand in bullion markets has increased. Lower yields also tend to support silver, which benefits from safe-haven flows during global economic uncertainty.

2. Indian Rupee Near 89.43 Mark

Another key factor influencing domestic prices is the rupee’s trajectory. The rupee’s move around ₹89.43 against the US dollar has raised landed costs of imported gold and silver, offering additional support to MCX prices.

A weaker rupee generally translates to higher domestic bullion prices even when global rates remain stable.

3. Festive and Wedding Demand Boost

India remains one of the world’s largest consumers of gold, and seasonal trends matter. With the festive and wedding season in full swing, physical gold and silver buying has remained strong.

Jewellers have reported increased footfall, with consumers rushing to purchase bullion ahead of expected price hikes in December and early 2026.

4. Industrial Demand for Silver

While gold’s demand is largely investment and jewellery-led, silver benefits from industrial usage, particularly in sectors such as:

• Solar panel manufacturing
• Electronics
• Electric vehicle components

Silver’s industrial strength, coupled with investment demand, explains November’s outsized gains.

Market Behaviour: Bullish Structure Intact

November has been a standout month for bullion traders:

• Silver Micro contracts gained 6%, driven by increased speculative activity.
• Gold marked its fourth consecutive monthly gain, signalling strong underlying demand across both spot and futures markets.

Market strategists note that MCX calendar spreads favour long positions, hinting at consistent trader optimism. Higher near-month prices relative to far-month contracts indicate bullishness about immediate supply-demand dynamics.

Profit-booking phases have emerged intermittently, but analysts believe these are healthy corrections within a larger uptrend.

Buy/Hold Recommendations

Most commodity analysts maintain a positive outlook on precious metals going into 2026.

Suggested Portfolio Allocation

Experts advise allocating 10–15% of investment portfolios to precious metals, particularly for risk diversification amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Silver: Higher Upside Potential

Analysts see additional upside in silver, with some projecting an increase equivalent to $9 per ounce in global markets over the medium term, provided industrial demand remains robust and US yields continue to soften.

Gold: Stable and Resilient

Gold remains attractive for conservative investors seeking stability and inflation protection. The continued rally in MCX gold suggests that dips below ₹1.28 lakh may remain short-lived.

What Traders Should Track

• US economic data, including inflation and employment figures
• Federal Reserve commentary on monetary policy
• Movement of the rupee against the US dollar
• Domestic demand trends, especially post-wedding-season momentum

2026 Outlook: What Analysts Expect

Precious metals are entering 2026 with a favourable mix of macroeconomic and structural drivers. Based on current global and domestic trends, here is the consolidated forecast:

1. Gold May Test New Highs

If the Federal Reserve begins its anticipated rate-cut cycle in early to mid-2026, gold prices could see a fresh upward breakout. Analysts project MCX gold could test the ₹1.33–1.36 lakh per 10g range in the second half of 2026.

A weaker rupee and geopolitical risk premium could further support prices.

2. Silver’s Supercycle Narrative Strengthens

Silver’s dual role — as a precious and industrial metal — positions it uniquely for 2026. India’s renewable energy expansion, particularly solar power growth, is expected to boost industrial silver consumption.

Projections from commodity desks suggest silver may attempt ₹2.05–2.15 lakh per kg on MCX by late 2026, assuming global industrial expansion continues.

3. Volatility Will Remain High

Despite the bullish bias, both metals are expected to see heightened volatility due to:

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions
• Currency fluctuations
• Shifting inflation expectations
• China’s industrial activity cycles

Traders should prepare for sharp intraday moves while maintaining core long-term holdings.

Conclusion

Gold and silver are entering 2026 on a strong footing, supported by favourable global monetary expectations, domestic demand strength, and industrial consumption trends. With MCX gold above ₹1.29 lakh and silver near ₹1.75 lakh, the market tone remains firmly bullish.

For traders and long-term investors alike, the message is clear: precious metals continue to offer robust diversification benefits, and the 2026 outlook supports a strategic buy/hold stance with careful monitoring of global cues.